Hampton Roads gas capacity: the utility says peak days need all its upstream supply

By Sam Strong, Vice President of Business Development, Discovery Energy. Technical review by Tara Dugger, Chief Operating Officer. Updated October 2026.

Metro used: the Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC metropolitan statistical area (Hampton Roads), as the federal government defined it in Bulletin No. 23-01 of July 21, 2023.²² Virginia Natural Gas, Inc. (VNG) serves most of the metro. Confidence is Medium.

Key takeaways

Who serves the Hampton Roads area?

Virginia Natural Gas serves most of Hampton Roads. Its own fact sheet names Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Suffolk, Hampton, Newport News, Williamsburg, Poquoson, James City County and York County.⁶ The records read do not identify the utility for Portsmouth, Isle of Wight, Surry, Gloucester and Mathews.

Camden, Currituck and Gates counties in North Carolina appear in Piedmont Natural Gas's color on the North Carolina Utilities Commission's May 2025 service area map, read by eye. No Piedmont record was read, so these 3 counties are a coverage gap.

VNG doesn't publish design-day figures (the coldest day its system is planned for) or supply figures for Hampton Roads alone, so the figures on this page cover its whole system.¹

Surry, Isle of Wight, Suffolk and Chesapeake lie on the route of the Virginia Reliability Project's replacement pipe.²

These places lie beyond the metro boundary, so the page leaves them out: the Emporia compressor station and delivery point in Greensville County, VNG customers in King William, Hanover, New Kent and Charles City counties, and the City of Richmond's separate gas system.

How much spare gas capacity does Hampton Roads have on the coldest day?

The public record does not give a spare-capacity figure for Hampton Roads on the coldest day.

System supply, as of August 2022. VNG is directly connected to three distinct sources of gas supply: Columbia, Eastern Gas Transmission & Storage and its own on-system peak shaving systems.¹ Columbia's application gave VNG's design day and supply portfolio for the 2022-2023 winter as follows.

VNG's gas supply portfolio for the 2022-2023 winter, with each part's share of the total.²⁰

The design day forecast for firm demand in the same winter was 505,936 Dth/d.¹ The portfolio was 7.9% above it by calculation, a figure the filing gives as roughly 8%.

After the new capacity. The record does not show whether the 100,000 Dth/d that began on November 1, 2025 changed VNG's peak-day picture. We ran two tests. First, VNG's peak-day statement was filed on February 4, 2025.¹³ That was 270 days before the capacity began by our calculation, so it describes the system without it.¹¹ Second, nothing later in the record restates the balance: VNG's response of November 3, 2025, two days after the capacity began, says that during peak day conditions disruption to EGTS could leave VNG unable to guarantee continuous service to its firm customers, and does not mention the added capacity.¹⁴ The Commission's March 3, 2026 final order adopts the reliability need.

Why there is no reserve figure. The February 2025 application puts firm supply at 848,740 Dth/d, at least 1.65 times the design day of almost 514,000 MMBtu it states, yet says all of that supply is needed on a peak day. The filings are not on a common basis, so we withdrew an earlier calculation that grew the 2022-2023 design day and portfolio forward to estimate a reserve above 5%, and no reserve can be calculated.¹³

What is driving new natural gas demand?

The records read name no new large load in the metro by customer and service date.

VNG said its 1% growth forecast does not include potential large commercial or industrial additions from regional economic development efforts. Columbia's application discusses offshore wind manufacturing in Hampton Roads as an economic opportunity that depends on natural gas supply, without naming a customer, a size or a service date.¹ A search of other official records found no planned natural gas-fired generator in EIA's September 2026 generator inventory for the metro's Virginia or North Carolina counties and cities. It also found no FERC pipeline notice naming any of them with a pipeline docket number since January 1, 2025.⁷

Data centers: As of October 28, 2026, we found no new data center load for the metro in the official sources reviewed.¹⁵ The State Corporation Commission website and the pipeline informational postings could not be reviewed, so filings there may not be reflected.

Are upgrades arriving in time?

The new pipeline capacity is in service.¹¹ The compressor station that addresses VNG's peak-day need is due after the 2026-2027 winter.¹⁴

Columbia and VNG signed a binding precedent agreement for VNG to receive 100,000 Dth/d of firm transportation service on the Virginia Reliability Project for 20 years, the project's full capacity.¹ FERC's November 2023 order describes the project as replacing 49.2 miles of 12-inch pipeline with 24-inch pipeline. It found a need for the incremental capacity, on the evidence of the precedent agreement for 100% of it.²

Columbia told FERC that nine pipe-replacement facilities entered service in October 2025 and, after FERC staff approved the Emporia and Petersburg compressor stations on October 28, 2025, that it began providing the full project capacity to the project shipper as of November 1, 2025.¹¹ The letters do not name the shipper (the order and application identify it as VNG) or give a delivered volume. TC Energy, the pipeline's owner, also says on its project page that the project is in service.³

The gas reaches Columbia at Emporia from Transco's Commonwealth Energy Connector, whose service Transco's December 2025 FERC Watch says commenced on November 1, 2025.⁸ Transco certified to FERC on November 14, 2025 that the connector had been constructed and installed in compliance with the order's conditions; neither notice gives a delivered volume.¹²

The capacity it shares with Columbia's project is one capacity, not an addition. The application said the project adds 30,000 Dth/d to VNG's portfolio after replacing about 70,000 Dth/d of retiring propane-air peaking.¹ The record read does not show when that retirement occurs.

The compressor station is the fix for the need VNG describes. It adds no upstream capacity. It raises delivery pressure at the Chesapeake Gate so VNG can move up to 181 million standard cubic feet per day from the southern part of its own system, supplied by Columbia, to the northern part.¹³ Its estimated cost is about $89 million, and the Commission approved it on March 3, 2026 and ordered it constructed and in service by November 1, 2027.¹⁴

VNG describes the reliability threat as real and present. By our calculation, the station arrives after the first of the three winters this page looks ahead to (2026-2027), and 730 days after the new capacity began.¹⁴

Staff's September 30, 2025 supplemental report said it remained unclear whether the project is needed to ensure the reliability of VNG's system or mainly to move part of Westrock's load from interruptible service (supply that may be restricted on the coldest winter days) to firm service. VNG acknowledged that serving Westrock is a driver, but a secondary one. The Commission found the project needed both to maintain reliability and resiliency and to accommodate Westrock's request.¹⁴

What does this mean for business gas costs?

The record does not show how the compressor station's cost would be allocated to business customers. The FERC order records Columbia's proposal to charge existing shippers $607,126,271 of the project's cost and the expansion shipper, VNG, $310,799,256 for the incremental capacity under incremental rates.² This is an allocation among pipeline shippers, and it does not state how VNG allocates costs among its customer classes. The cities of Charlottesville and Richmond protested the allocation to existing shippers.⁴

The Commission's final order puts the station's cost at about $89 million. The resulting rate change is to be set in later rate proceedings, so how it is allocated to business customers is not in the record.¹⁴ VNG's rate case and tariff, which would show class allocation, were not reached for this page.

Who gets gas first in a shortage?

VNG said many large employers in Hampton Roads receive interruptible service, and that on the coldest winter days their supply may be restricted to maintain firm service.⁵ VNG's November 2025 response says the near-miss low-pressure events of the last six years affected interruptible customers and no firm load customers.¹⁴ The tariff interruption sequence and any penalties were not read for this page.

Winter and market context

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 15, 2026 that its November 2026 to January 2027 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures for, among other areas, the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions, a discussion that names regions and not counties.^B1 The metro lies in EIA's East storage region, where EIA's weekly storage table, released October 22, 2026, lists working gas at 900 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 16, 2026, up from 795 on September 11.^C1 The saved table does not carry the five-year-average comparison.

National inventory, export, citygate-price and spot-price figures do not describe VNG's system and are not used here.²³

No pipeline notice is reported here: Columbia Gas Transmission, Transco and EGTS post their critical and winter notices on sites that could not be read automatically, so we could not check their recent notices.

Winter weather and NOAA's outlook

The table shows heating degree days (a measure of how cold the weather was) at the Norfolk International Airport weather station, from November to March, for winters 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26.¹⁶

Heating degree days, November to March, with the share of the 1991-2020 normal in brackets.²¹

On October 15, 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gave the Hampton Roads area, for both November 2026 to January 2027 and December 2026 to February 2027, at least a 33% chance of above-normal temperatures (a slight lean), about 33% near-normal and no more than 34% below-normal; these are probabilities for a three-month average, not a forecast of specific days, and a lean toward warmer weather does not rule out cold days.¹⁷

Policy context

Virginia law lets a natural gas utility ask for approval of a plan to replace infrastructure and recover the related costs through a rider. This comes from the Code of Virginia's Steps to Advance Virginia's Energy Plan (SAVE) Act, which provides that a natural gas utility may file such a plan with the State Corporation Commission.^P1 The Legislative Information System page shows the section as in effect on October 26, 2026.

What is the outlook for Hampton Roads gas capacity through 2029?

Discovery Energy rates the outlook for Hampton Roads natural gas capacity through 2029 as Elevated (confidence: Medium): VNG told the Virginia State Corporation Commission that on a peak day all of its upstream capacity is needed, the Commission found the Chesapeake Compressor Station needed for reliability and resiliency, that station is due after the first winter of the horizon, and VNG's margin after the new capacity is not in the record read. Documented risk factors: none beyond the base level. Three developments would change the assessment: a State Corporation Commission filing in which VNG states its design day and supply balance after the new capacity, showing headroom or a shortfall; the compressor station's in-service date or any extension request; or a firm-customer curtailment or a dated low-pressure event on the EGTS interconnection that reaches firm customers.

Outlook levels, from least to most concern: Stable, Watch, Elevated, High, Severe. Levels describe the public record of capacity and supply risk; confidence is reported separately. They are qualitative assessments, not forecasts of outages.

What does the record not show about Hampton Roads?

The record does not show VNG's margin after the new capacity, and it leaves several other gaps.

• Reliance on one pipeline. EGTS is 74.6% of VNG's stated firm supply by calculation, and VNG is last in line on it. That reliance and the Chesapeake Gate pressure limit are the basis of the level, so they are not added as separate risk factors.¹³
• Risk factors. None applies. The record read shows no planned gas-fired generator or pipeline notice in the metro.⁷ It shows no dated supply event; the low-pressure close calls are undated and no firm customer was interrupted.¹³ It shows no design day revision, and no contract ending within the horizon or two years after it.¹⁴
• Not in the record. VNG's design day, portfolio and margin after the expansion; whether the Columbia figure includes the new capacity; the confidential pressure record and Westrock's volume; when or whether the propane-air peaking was retired; any other facility limit inside the metro; delivered volumes or pipeline utilization; the utility serving Portsmouth, Isle of Wight, Surry, Gloucester and Mathews, and Piedmont Natural Gas's record for Camden, Currituck and Gates counties; VNG's tariff interruption sequence and class cost allocation. Staff's reports, VNG's supplemental testimony and VNG's rate case (PUR-2026-00036) were not in the files read.

What's new (as of October 28, 2026)

Columbia Gas of Virginia says its May 2026 filing with the State Corporation Commission seeks about $64.3 million more annual revenue, with interim rates subject to refund for services on or after October 4, 2026.¹⁸ No other filing, order or pipeline notice dated within the previous 90 days that affects gas capacity was found in the sources reviewed.¹⁹

What should Hampton Roads-area facilities check now?

• Tariffs and charges, through a utility audit. Confirm each account is on the right rate class and tariff, and that riders, demand charges and capacity-related charges are billed correctly. Over 70% of the clients Discovery Energy has audited were billed incorrectly. An audit verifies tariffs and charges and recovers overcharges before winter costs rise.
• Which service. Confirm whether each site takes firm or interruptible service, since interruptible supply may be restricted on the coldest winter days.
• Which utility. Confirm whether the site is served by Virginia Natural Gas, Piedmont Natural Gas in North Carolina, or another provider, especially in the places where the records read do not identify one.
• Backup plans and fuel. Check that alternate-fuel and curtailment plans are current and feasible, and that fuel inventories and resupply arrangements are in place before December.
• Upcoming filings. Track VNG's filings at the Virginia State Corporation Commission for its current design day and supply portfolio.

Frequently asked questions

Related case studies

Discovery Energy publishes gas capacity case studies for other metros, using the same method and outlook scale.

• Pennsylvania UGI Gas territory natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Raleigh natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Charlotte natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• Philadelphia area natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)
• York natural gas capacity case study (outlook: Elevated)

All gas capacity ratings by U.S. metro

Notes

1. Columbia, Abbreviated Application for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity, Virginia Reliability Project, Volume I (Docket No. CP22-503-000, August 24, 2022), PDF 12, 13, 17 and 18; Resource Report 1 is Volume II. These are utility statements made through Columbia; VNG's figures are as Columbia quoted them. The application's Table 1 is partly garbled in the text extract, so quotes are taken from the prose. ↩
2. FERC, Order Issuing Certificates and Approving Abandonment, 185 FERC para. 61,130 (Docket Nos. CP22-502-000 and CP22-503-000, November 16, 2023), Word file as downloaded, no page numbers. The order calls VNG "Virginia Gas". A commission order. The connector's 105,000 Dth/d includes 5,000 Dth/d to firm up an existing mismatch. ↩
3. TC Energy, Virginia Reliability Project page and Needs and Benefits page (retrieved October 26, 2026). Pipeline operator statements; the in-service statement gives no date or volume. ↩
4. Cities of Charlottesville and Richmond, Virginia, Joint and Several Motion to Intervene and Protest (Docket No. CP22-503-000, September 29, 2022). Party filing; it concerns cost allocation. ↩
5. VNG, comments to FERC (Docket Nos. CP22-502 and CP22-503, September 22, 2022); the PDF is an image, and quotes are confirmed against Windows OCR text, so a quote's match means the digits and words appear in that text. ↩
6. Virginia Natural Gas, At-a-Glance fact sheet (figures reflect 2025); North Carolina Utilities Commission, Natural Gas page and Natural Gas Service Areas in North Carolina map (May 2025). County fills on the map were read by eye. ↩
7. EIA-860M inventory for September 2026 (Planned sheet), filtered to the metro's counties and cities, and a Federal Register search of FERC notices since January 1, 2025 by place name, both computed. A notice that spells a place differently would be missed. ↩
8. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, FERC Watch (December 1, 2025), Authorization to Commence Service for the Commonwealth Energy Connector Project, Docket No. CP22-502-000. A pipeline operator customer notice. ↩
9. Not established, and left out of the page: VNG's design day, supply portfolio and margin after the expansion (the February 2025 application states firm supply and a design day on bases that do not reconcile, and no later VNG balance was read); whether the 215,515 Dth/d Columbia figure includes the 100,000 Dth/d; the confidential pressure record and Westrock's firm volume (redacted in the public version); Staff's reports, VNG's supplemental direct testimony and the rate case PUR-2026-00036 (not in the files read); whether and when the propane-air peaking was retired; facility-level limits inside the metro other than the Chesapeake Gate pressure limit; VNG's tariff interruption sequence and class cost allocation; delivery-point utilization and delivered volumes from pipeline postings (Columbia, Transco and Eastern Gas Transmission & Storage postings could not be read; next capture about March 2027); dated supply events for VNG (the records read document none); the utility serving Portsmouth, Isle of Wight, Surry, Gloucester and Mathews; and Piedmont Natural Gas's record for Camden, Currituck and Gates counties.
10. New-load search not established beyond the searches in Note 7, and left out of the claims: Virginia Department of Environmental Quality air permit records, PJM interconnection queue entries and FERC eLibrary certificate filings, none of which could be saved automatically; news reports are leads only and are not claimed.
11. Columbia Gas Transmission, LLC, Notification of Commencement of Service (Docket No. CP22-503-000, October 24, 2025) and Notification of Commencement of Service and Affirmative Statement (November 7, 2025); FERC Office of Energy Projects, Authorization to Commence Service (October 28, 2025). Utility notices to FERC and a staff authorization letter; the notices do not name the project shipper. Columbia told FERC on October 24, 2025 that nine facilities replacing existing pipe were placed into service on October 21, 2025, after FERC granted a partial request on September 30. FERC's staff approved Columbia's request to place the Emporia and Petersburg compressor stations into service and commence full service on October 28, 2025. On November 7, 2025 Columbia reported that it began providing the full project capacity of 100,000 Dth/d to the project shipper as of November 1, 2025; these letters do not name the shipper. ↩
12. Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Company, LLC, Affirmative Statement, Commonwealth Energy Connector Project (Docket No. CP22-502, November 14, 2025). A certification of construction compliance; no service date or volume. ↩
13. Virginia Natural Gas, Inc., Application and Appendix, Chesapeake Compressor Project (Virginia State Corporation Commission Case No. PUR-2025-00021, filed February 4, 2025; public version), PDF 6, 7, 8 and 12. The application cover filing and John Cogburn's direct testimony of the same date were also registered; Mr. Cogburn's testimony concerns cost recovery and was not used for a claim. Utility statements; the pressure record and Westrock's volume are redacted as confidential; text extracted. The application also says VNG is last in line on EGTS, so any upstream contingency could meaningfully harm service in the northern part of its territory. A dekatherm is a unit of gas energy. The figure is from the February 2025 application. ↩
14. Virginia State Corporation Commission, Order on Motion (October 29, 2025) and Final Order (March 3, 2026); VNG, Response in Opposition to Staff's Motion to Supplement (October 6, 2025) and Response to Supplemental Staff Report (November 3, 2025), all in Case No. PUR-2025-00021. Commission orders and utility filings; Staff's views are as the orders and VNG's response describe them, because Staff's reports were not in the files read. ↩
15. Searches of October 28, 2026: EIA-860M September 2026 for the metro's Virginia and North Carolina counties and cities; Federal Register FERC notices since July 30, 2026; Columbia Gas of Virginia regulatory page. Not reviewed: Virginia State Corporation Commission website (its disallows all paths), Virginia DEQ (blocks automated downloads), PJM queue, pipeline informational postings. ↩
16. NOAA Regional Climate Centers, Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) StnData web service, monthly heating degree days (base 65F) and 1991-2020 normals, November to March of winters 2023-24 to 2025-26, retrieved October 26 to 28, 2026: NORFOLK INTL AP. Sums computed. ↩
17. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, seasonal temperature outlook issued October 15, 2026, shapefiles lead1 (November to January) and lead2 (December to February) from ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/GIS/us_tempprcpfcst/seastemp_202610.zip, read at each metro's coordinates. The map gives the favored category and the lower edge of its probability band; NOAA's own explanation (Link) keeps near-normal at 33.3% and gives the opposite category the rest, so the above-normal figure is a floor and the below-normal figure a ceiling. ↩
18. Columbia Gas of Virginia, Regulatory Information: 2026 rate adjustment filing, undated, saved 2026-10-28; Rate adjustment filing section. ↩
19. Searches of October 28, 2026: EIA-860M September 2026 for the metro's Virginia and North Carolina counties and cities; Federal Register FERC notices since July 30, 2026; Columbia Gas of Virginia regulatory page. Not reviewed: Virginia State Corporation Commission website (its disallows all paths), Virginia DEQ (blocks automated downloads), PJM queue, pipeline informational postings. ↩
20. Portfolio table: Discovery Energy calculated each part's share of the 546,072 Dth/d total from VNG's figures as stated in Columbia's August 2022 application. ↩
21. Heating degree days table: figures are from NOAA's Applied Climate Information System (ACIS), computed, and the share in brackets is each winter's total against the 1991-2020 normal. ↩
22. The metro takes in these counties and cities: Camden County, North Carolina; Currituck County, North Carolina; Gates County, North Carolina; Gloucester County, Virginia; Isle of Wight County, Virginia; James City County, Virginia; Mathews County, Virginia; Surry County, Virginia; York County, Virginia; Chesapeake city, Virginia; Hampton city, Virginia; Newport News city, Virginia; Norfolk city, Virginia; Poquoson city, Virginia; Portsmouth city, Virginia; Suffolk city, Virginia; Virginia Beach city, Virginia; and Williamsburg city, Virginia.
23. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center discussion of October 15, 2026 also says the probability of at least a strong El Nino continuing through January to March 2027 is 80% (source B1). The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on October 6, 2026 that it expects U.S. natural gas inventories to enter the winter heating season 2% above the previous five-year average (source A1). It also said that prolonged periods of cold weather could increase withdrawals beyond its forecast (source A2). EIA lists U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports of 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 18 in 2026 and 19 in 2027 (source A1). EIA's Henry Hub spot price was 3.28 dollars per million Btu on the first day of the week ending October 23, 2026 (source C4). EIA's Virginia citygate series is 8.33 dollars per thousand cubic feet for July 2026, the latest month in the series (source C2), and its North Carolina citygate series is 6.01 for July 2026 (source C3). ↩

Market and weather sources

Public web sources saved and hashed on October 25 and 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes. The Climate Prediction Center issues its seasonal outlook once each month near mid-month; this section is refreshed on the publication date.

1. A1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year," October 6, 2026. Link
2. A2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (natural gas storage). Link
3. B1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued October 15, 2026. Link ↩
4. C1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage, release of October 22, 2026. Link ↩
5. C2. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in Virginia, monthly. Link
6. C3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Citygate Price in North Carolina, monthly. Link
7. C4. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, daily. Link

Policy sources

Official sources saved and hashed on October 26, 2026. They are context, separate from the regulatory record cited in the Notes.

1. P1. Virginia General Assembly, Code of Virginia, Title 56, Chapter 26, Steps to Advance Virginia's Energy Plan (SAVE) Act, petition to establish a SAVE plan. Link ↩

Sources

1. FERC eLibrary, Docket Nos. CP22-502-000 and CP22-503-000 (Transco and Columbia). Link
2. Virginia State Corporation Commission, Case No. PUR-2025-00021 (Application of Virginia Natural Gas, Inc., Chesapeake Compressor Project). Link
3. Virginia Natural Gas, Our Service Area. Link
4. TC Energy, Virginia Reliability Project. Link
5. North Carolina Utilities Commission, Natural Gas. Link
6. Office of Management and Budget, OMB Bulletin No. 23-01, Revised Delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas, and Combined Statistical Areas, July 21, 2023.
7. U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, September 2026. Link
8. Federal Register, API search of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission notices by place. Link